Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Introducing the Lieberman Party of Canada

Let's take a closer look at what it means for PMS to have appointed Lib MP Wajid Khan as his special adviser on the Middle East with the blessing of the Libs - and how the Libs have given PMS a massive gift with their willingness to play along.

First, the move effectively absolves Harper of serious scrutiny for his train wreck of a foreign policy, particularly to the extent such attention would have come from the Libs themselves. After his embarrassment of the country over the past couple of weeks, now should be the time for the opposition to hold his feet to the fire.

But Khan and the Libs have singlehandedly stopped Harper's slide. Now, Harper can now say that any missteps are in the past, that he's learning more about his role with Lib help and encouragement, and that he just needs more time to hear from his Lib adviser before setting things right. And particularly when any Lib tries to question him, he'll be able to point to that Lib's party-mate who was willing to drop everything to run to his assistance, and ask why the Lib questioner doesn't approve of Khan's contribution. It may fall slightly short of a Joe Lieberman publicly denouncing his own party at every turn, but the impact is the same - and in fact the endorsement of Bill Graham takes the Libs' complicity to the top of its party structure.

Of course, the impact goes further than foreign policy alone. The move suggests that for all their public posturing, the Libs honestly believe that Harper is reasonable enough and open enough to criticism to be willing to change his policies based on the input of a single adviser. After all, why else would it be worth their while to send one of their own MPs into Harper's sphere? After two campaigns of nothing but "fear Harper!" from the Libs, their sudden turn toward "Harper's not so bad!" can only squelch any credibility the Libs were otherwise in danger of building up, while at the same time improving public perceptions of PMS.

And it's happening already. Based on the newfound party approval some bloggers are now saying explicitly that Harper really just needs some time to hear the Libs' side of the story. Which means that Harper can now refuse to listen to absolutely anybody (not that this would be much of a change), yet still have Libs on the record saying they consider him well-intentioned and willing to listen - a claim which can then spill over into domestic policy no matter how far the Cons go out of their way to avoid hearing dissenting views.

Those are the shorter-term effects. But in the long term, things look even worse once Khan's advice could plausibly play a role in policy formation (though I'm rather dubious that Harper is particularly interested in listening). If Harper avoids any further gaffes, then the spillover effect will only increase, making his domestic policies appear more moderate than they are and undermining any Lib efforts to challenge him. And if he does screw up again, then he'll have the choice of either blaming Khan's input and forever repudiating any need to listen to other political actors, or suggesting that the failure is a national one rather than a political one due to the Libs' willing involvement.

So what's in it for the Libs? Aside from some increased profile for Khan personally, the best excuse for their willingness to play along probably sounds something like "We fail to cooperate with our Prime Minister at our nation's peril". Which should be setting off more than a few alarm bells.

The flip side of the Libs' self-neutering is that the NDP will be left all the more clearly as the only national party willing to oppose Harper rather than cover up for him. Which will present a great opportunity, but also a massive challenge for a party which still needs to build capacity before it'll be able to stop the Cons on its own.

The question now is whether the Think Twice coalition from 2006 will itself think twice about its own misguided belief that the Libs would be effective at keeping Harper in check. If that group unites behind the NDP, then there may yet be a chance to keep Harper out of majority territory, and indeed perhaps to put an NDP administration in power sooner than conventional wisdom would suggest. But yesterday proves that the Libs have their own strategic reasons for undermining the effort - which will only make stopping Harper all the more difficult for those of us who recognize the dangers that he may pose to Canada.

Update: And to think I may have understated the case, as several prominent Libs are worried that Khan might act as an outright double agent rather than just a one-time pawn of Harper's.

(Edit: revised wording of update.)

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