Once again there is a buzz of anticipation in the diehard ranks of Quebec New Democrats, a stirring of belief that this next election might be the one that ends differently.It's far from sure that the Bloc will indeed cede enough territory to make the NDP's road a lot easier. But it still bears mentioning that even in the last trip to the polls the NDP already managed to run third or higher in more than just a few Quebec ridings, and a strong fourth in numerous others.
The party got its biggest credibility boost in years April 20 when former Liberal MNA and provincial cabinet minister Thomas Mulcair announced he was joining the NDP and would run for the party in the coming election.
Getting himself dumped as Jean Charest's environment minister last year for standing against the Orford Park land selloff was perhaps not the worst of political career moves. Charest wound up looking like a heel and Mulcair came off as an environmental hero.
He brings to the NDP both experience in the corridors of power and street cred on the hot-button political issue of the day.
And now he's an NDP believer...
NDP hopes are fuelled by more than Mulcair's conversion.
They are in tune with majority Quebec sentiment on current wedge issues - Kyoto, gun control, Afghanistan - on which the Conservatives are offside. The Liberals are stalled under Stephane Dion's shaky leadership. Last month's provincial election put the separatist movement in limbo, making it much harder for the Bloc Quebecois to justify its existence.
Historically, the NDP's fundamental problem in Quebec has been that its inception coincided with the rise of the province's separatist movement. The clientele to which it appeals in the rest of the country, social democrats, unionists, environmentalists, economic nationalists and such are abundant in Quebec, but here they are typically sovereignist in the bargain.
As much as the party needs a Mulcair, it needs a Bloc meltdown.
Pierre Ducasse, another of the party's bright-hope candidates, believes that's coming about.
"The Bloc was a comfortable place for people to park their votes," he said. "It was in large part a protest vote, but I think people are ready for a change there. Quebecers today are looking more for solutions than for confrontation. That opens doors for us."
As a result, even a Bloc collapse doesn't look to be a precondition to NDP success if the right dynamics play out between the Libs and Cons in Quebec. And while the NDP will certainly be looking to make Mulcair's arrival only one of many strong additions for the next election cycle, it doesn't figure to take much more to push the NDP over the top in a riding or two.
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