Sunday, October 19, 2008

On thresholds

The Pundits' Guide features another interesting tidbit on its front page, listing the rebate-eligible ridings for each federal party (i.e. ridings where each party took at least 10% of the vote). But while the NDP's performance overall is impressive enough, its progress in Quebec is particularly significant.

In total, the NDP managed to reach the rebate level in 244 ridings - an increase of 30 from 2006. But the regional numbers show that in Quebec, the NDP went from only 8 ridings at the 10% level in 2006, all the way to 50 in 2008.

And that should have a huge impact on how those ridings raise and spend money in the future. Rather than having to assume that election expenditures will only offer a one-time benefit, most NDP Quebec riding associations will now be able to count on getting back 60% of what they spend. Which should make it far easier to justify investing money in the party's electoral campaigns - and to convince supporters to make their contributions at the riding level as well.

What's more, the impact of possible four-way races in Quebec may make for less of a distance from the rebate level to the point of winning seats. And that can only encourage the NDP in its continued efforts to build the party in Quebec.

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