Tuesday, December 09, 2008

On best-case scenarios

evening critic suggests in the comments here that the impending Ignatieff appointment could prove to be a plus for the NDP. Now, I've shared the view for quite some time that Iggy could ultimately help the NDP if he plays to type: in theory he's well-positioned to attack the Cons' left flank while himself being vulnerable to NDP messaging.

Not surprisingly, the coalition only raises the stakes in that respect. Indeed, one could hardly ask for a better election frame than one arising out of Ignatieff tearing up the coalition agreement: not only would the NDP be able to attack the Libs for backing out of a cause which has fired up progressives across the country, but it would also be able to point to the Bloc's lack of interest in being part of a governing coalition as an obstacle to the coalition's success. And that combination could make for the best opportunity the NDP has ever enjoyed to make itself into one of the two primary alternatives.

That said, I'd still have a hard time seeing such an outcome as anything but a distant second-best possibility. For one thing, barring a significant shift in electoral support it would likely leave Deceivin' Stephen in power for the balance of the present Parliament and the one to follow. But even the prospect of removing a power-drunk Harper from the wheel in favour of a government which includes NDP participation may not be the most important reason why a successful coalition would be the ideal end result.

After all, the coalition also reflects the best chance in the near future to demonstrate the viability of cooperative politics. While any attempt to predetermine electoral outcomes looks to have been shot down by the failure of the Red Green pact, there's ample room for the coalition parties to demonstrate that it's possible to work together in governing within a functioning Parliament rather than operating based on the brinksmanship of the previous two minority governments.

In sum, a successful coalition would serve as a strong argument against the usual push for majorities at all costs which currently dominates Lib and Con strategy, and in favour of a move toward proportional representation. And that combination could help to set up about the best bulwark available against any future government making Canada subject to the type of power-mad politics of destruction which have characterized Harper's stay in office.

Of course, the NDP has to be ready for the prospect that the Libs under Iggy won't share that vision. But to the extent the NDP puts pressure on Ignatieff as he ascends to the Libs' leadership, its primary goal has to be to ensure that the Libs live up to their end of the coalition agreement. And I for one would much rather see the NDP succeed in that task.

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