Friday, May 15, 2009

Leadership 2009 - Ryan Meili Opposition Projection

While the opposition projections for Deb Higgins and Dwain Lingenfelter were assisted by the fact that both have actually spent time on opposition benches before, the task is somewhat tougher when it comes to the other two leadership contestants. That said, there are still some highly distinctive themes to be picked up from how Ryan Meili and Yens Pedersen have handled the leadership campaign. So let's look at Meili next.

When it comes to party-building, Meili's success in developing a relatively strong and widespread network over the few months of the leadership campaign would figure to offer a sound model to further build up the NDP over the next two years. And the fact that Meili has stayed positive in his dealings with the other leadership candidates would seemingly raise the likelihood that he'll be able to get the party's current supporters united behind him, rather than having to spend much time nursing wounds from the leadership race.

On the other hand, there could be some question as to whether a primarily volunteer-based model from the leadership race would require significant adaptation when applied to professional staff. And the task of keeping a full party's worth of ego and self-interest reined in toward the greater good may raise challenges which Meili has largely been able to avoid in the leadership race.

As for the task of opposing the Sask Party, Meili's first hurdle would be to find his way into the Legislature - though he wouldn't seem likely to have much trouble winning what otherwise figures to be a tough Saskatoon-Riversdale nomination race with the title of party leader to his name.

From there, while Meili would undoubtedly grow into the role of chief critic of the Sask Party, one would still expect him to keep the NDP's opposition tactics on the civil side. As in the leadership campaign, Meili would figure to focus on policy-based critiques in order to set up a broad clash of visions in 2011, while leaving the personal and political to his partymates to the extent they need to be dealt with.

As a result, Meili's opposition would figure to be the least focused on tearing down Wall personally. But while that likely runs against conventional wisdom, it might well make for the NDP's most viable strategy for 2011, particularly if the province is still on the upswing at that point. If the NDP can spend two years building up Meili's image and turning the next election into a question of whose hope best reflects the values of Saskatchewan's citizens, then it might well be able to win in 2011 despite Wall remaining personally popular and the mood in the province remaining optimistic - rather than counting on a "throw the bums out" attitude developing toward the Sask Party in a relatively short span of time.

Of course, the downside to running on one's own vision in opposition is that it gives the government something more concrete to attack outside its own ranks rather than having to campaign on its own record. Which means that the main question for NDP members in comparing Meili's opposition strategy to that of the other candidates may be whether they think they can sell the positives of the NDP's vision more easily than the negatives of Wall's government.

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