Friday, May 06, 2011

Post-Election Questions: The Liberals

From what I've seen, all indications are that the Liberals plan to take some time to rebuild before starting a leadership race or otherwise making any significant moves. And it certainly makes sense for a party which has been trapped in short-term thinking for half a decade to take the opportunity to take a step back to consider its future.

But there's one major question about the plan to put off the big decisions that look like they'll be left for a year or two.

Can the Liberals stay relevant while putting off any definition of their direction or values?

Granted, it sounds well and good to focus on organization-building, fund-raising and other structural work. And there's no doubt the Libs have some catching up to do on those fronts.

But in order to rebuild to any significant degree, the Libs will need to extend their appeal beyond the limited cadre of party insiders that's proven less and less effective with each passing election. And as long as the Libs are on autopilot, unable to take strong positions which might not fit with future leadership and policy choices, it'll be awfully tough to motivate the donors and volunteers the Libs need to rebuild.

Indeed, it's entirely possible that an overly long interim leadership period will only exacerbate what's already been a weakness in limiting themselves to reactive questioning of Con scandals. And there's less reason than ever to think the Libs will be the beneficiaries to the extent they're able to make any dirt stick.

What's more, the Libs' competitors aren't going to have any incentive to leave the most promising ground for future growth unclaimed in the meantime.

The NDP has already become more trusted than the Libs on issues like health care, the environment and government services - and it'll surely be working to entrench that position with its new wave of MPs. Meanwhile, the Cons will presumably plan to line up corporate Canada behind their government and further pitch an economic message as part of Harper's long-standing plan to become Canada's establishment party. And the more both parties do to own those issues, the less opening there will be for the Libs to try to retake them once they've held a leadership race.

So while it makes sense for the Libs to take some time to consider their options, they'll also need to confront the reality that those options may only become more limited if they wait too long. And if that happens, the tasks of leading and rebuilding the party will look even more daunting and less worthwhile than they appear already.

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