With the NDP's leadership contestants otherwise consisting entirely of sitting MPs or media-anointed favourites, Martin Singh has faced a tougher job getting noticed than anybody else in the field. So how has he done trying to start from that disadvantage?
Strengths
So far, the answer looks to be "not badly at all". Singh has presented a couple of detailed policy proposals, albeit with a strong bias toward his own areas of personal experience (though health care and small business aren't exactly a bad place to start in winning over NDP support). In addition, he's held his own in both official languages in the first debate - and perhaps most interestingly he's assembled a more ambitious ground game than many of his opponents, having opened up two campaign offices in the early stages of the race.
Weaknesses
Unfortunately for Singh, while he's done everything possible to get himself into the thick of the race for first-ballot support, it's far from clear where he can go from here. At best Singh may have a realistic chance to be the last Atlantic candidate standing, but it's still doubtful that there's enough support to be won from Robert Chisholm on that front to hold up against the far larger membership numbers elsewhere. And while Singh's policy themes aren't hugely controversial, it's also doubtful that they're going to inspire a lot of second-choice support.
Key Indicator
If there's anything that can radically change Singh's standing in the race, it would be an influx of activity from Canada's Sikh community. And on paper, there's enough potential strength to be found to at least keep Singh on a few ballots, and maybe to propel him toward the top of the race - meaning that Singh's ability to rally his religious community will tell the tale as to whether he can move into the middle tier of candidates.
Key Opponent
As noted above, let's stick with Robert Chisholm as the key factor here - since he looks to be both the candidate closest to Singh in the rankings, and the one whose support has the most obvious reason to shift Singh's way.
Plausible Outcomes
Best-case: A strong mid-tier finish which positions Singh for a high-level cabinet position in a 2015 government
Worst-case: A bottom-tier finish as an also-ran
No comments:
Post a Comment